The 1st International Symposium on Fundamental and Applied Sciences
June 27-29, 2013, Seoul, South Korea
Topic: Probabilistic Analysis of Volcanic Ash Dispersion over Korea
Speaker: Lee, Sungsu, Ph.D / Professor
School of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, 1 Chungbukdae-gil, Cheongju, Rep. of Korea
In 2010, a series of volcanic eruption of Mt. Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland put a hold on the air travel in the continent of Europe and affects all over the world. Besides this direct impact, numerous indirect effects were found from the aftermath. In January of 2011, another series of eruption from Mt. Shinmoedake, Kyushu, Japan also alerted Japan and the world. With these series of events, the reports from Chinese seismologists since 2002 have drawn an attention and initiated discussions on the possibility of the eruption of Mt. Baekdu which is located on the border of North Korea and Machuria, China. It was found that Mt. Baekdu has history of eruptions more than 20 times since 10th century and its strongest one in 10th century was believed to be about 1000 times that of Mt. Eyjafjallajokull.
Alerted from the series of events and the rediscovered facts about Mt. Baekdu, Korea has thought of potential threats from volcanos, that is, not only Mt. Baekdu but also volcanos in the vicinity of Korea, knowing that there are more than 10 Chinese volcanos within 1000km from Seoul and tens of Japanese ones. If any of those volcanos erupts, the most effects on Korean peninsula will come from ash dispersion and this study focuses on the probabilistic analysis of volcanic ash dispersion both in the air and on the land.
Thousands of hypothetical eruptions from Mt. Baekdu are assumed and the ash from the vent is simulated by a well-known numerical model employing particle tracking method based on lagrangian scheme. It is assumed that each eruption starts at midnight and lasts for 24 hours on every day from Jan. 1st , 2008 to Dec. 31st, 2013. The meteorological conditions including wind and pressure on each day are borrowed from reanalysis data of NCEP, which represents the real weather conditions. With these enormous amount of computed outputs, the probabilistic estimation of airborne and fallout ashes has been carried out over Korea and adjacent regions in North-East Asia. The results show that once it happens, the ash can sweep the part of Korean peninsula and travel across the East Sea to Japan and to the Pacific.
Therefore, it is very essential to establish the international collaboration and the cooperation in the research of volcanic risk in North-East Asia.
This work was supported by the grant from Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security, South Korea.
About the Speaker:
Field of Interests
201703 Nagoya conference program